Executive summary

We spoke with leaders from private equity, infrastructure, secondaries and venture capital funds, as well as institutional investors and other alternative asset managers, to survey the year ahead for private markets. One of the biggest themes that stood out was the consensus that macroeconomic factors like lowering interest rates were creating positive knock-on effects, making for a generally better deal environment overall. With much more in store for 2025, the industry participants in our report shared the following key insights:

• Dealmaking outlook optimistic: 72% of participants anticipate increased deal activity, and 20% suggested that we may see more buyer-friendly market dynamics. Many commented that competition for quality assets would increase as well.
• Key sector opportunities: Data centres and technology continue to be exciting areas for investors, with 40% of participants identifying this area as an attractive option for 2025. Energy, particularly oil and gas, is also expected to do well, according to 64% of respondents.
• Closing the valuation gap: A majority (80%) of those surveyed expect an increased convergence on valuation among buyers and sellers.
• Secondaries and co-investments here to stay: Many participants predicted that the secondaries and co-investments markets seem poised to outpace 2024 levels. These transactions have gained prominence in recent years and will likely continue to remain in the private market mainstream.

Despite the tailwinds, the incoming Trump Administration and the Canadian general election may alter the course of the year, as buyers and sellers brace for potential changes in merger controls, investment flows and other market responses. President Trump’s proposed tariffs are at the forefront of concerns, which could potentially tip interest rates up, reduce consumer confidence and disrupt manufacturing and trade south of the border, among other possible impacts. However, anticipated changes to regulation in a second Trump term could benefit dealmaking, especially in heavily regulated sectors like energy and financial services.

In response to recent challenges affecting private equity over the last several years, the sector is recalibrating. As leaders hone their investment strategies, we expect to see continued creativity and resourcefulness to get deals over the finish line in an active year of dealmaking.

Our respondents generally agreed that dealmaking conditions will likely continue to improve in 2025. As deal-friendly macroeconomic forces prevail, there is a “significant opportunity for new platform investments for funds that have dry powder”, as Mohit Talwar, Partner at Maverix Private Equity, shares.

Some of the predicted accompaniments of an active market include the re-emergence of IPO listings, closing buyer-seller valuation gaps and increased competition for quality assets.

For 2025, sectors thought to be the most attractive to alternative asset managers include technology and energy, while other areas to watch include Canadian domestic manufacturing and industrials. Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty may prove challenging, with increased antitrust enforcement likely to continue in addition to President Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could complicate dealmaking prospects. However, overall, there are reasons to be optimistic about getting deals done.

The secondaries market continues to grow, according to sponsors and investors we spoke with. As Neil Andrew of Overbay Capital Partners points out, “it seems like the secondary market is poised for another record year, with both buyers keen to deploy and sellers motivated to transact”.

60% of the leaders we surveyed indicated that secondaries were likely to stay the same or outpace 2024’s record-breaking year. LP-led secondaries may see increased activity as LPs continue to seek liquidity solutions and actively manage their portfolios. And GP-led transactions may see stronger growth as the incentive increases for sponsors to return capital to their LPs through traditional exits.

Figure 8: Annual secondaries transaction volume ($B)